ALP 2010 Election Review

The ALP Have set up a website for anyone to make submissions to their national review of the Election Campaign.  Here's my two-bobs worth

I'll keep it to the point:

1)  In Herbert, the Federal/Rudd intervention to preselect Mooney was a huge blunder - lots of bagage with the punters and little support (even loathing) in the Branches

2)  Herbert seems to be like many other electorates in the lack of talent available among our (ALP) potential candidate pool

3)  More broadly, changing leaders was the right thing to do, going when we did was probably the right thing, the "Rudd leaks" were killers and the campaign was woefull, uncreative and largely missed the point. Campaigns should be managed by tacticians not statiticians (or worse, market researchers) - You know what I mean John!

4)  We seem to have forgotten that we weren't elected in '07 because of Rudd - it was because the punters want the big issues addressed. Since then we've played the same small target we've played since we lost Keating as leader and have suffered the consequences.

5)  I don't envy your task

Two-bob is better than nothing!

The End - We have a Government!

nuff said...

Leunig at his best

Who really won in Herbert?

Slim raises an interesting point below about the recent campaign in Herbert. 

Judging by my letterbox and my TV habits, the LNP outspent the ALP 3:1!  So who exactly stumped up for Ewin What's-his-name?

Either the developers as Slim suggests or perhaps Big Clive P (a former property developer, now coal developer - basically the same MO though)?

One thing Slim is dead right about for sure - the property developers about town would have invested enough in each campaign to ensure that there would be a return for them no matter who won!

As for No Raffles at Mooney's wake? - I reckon he's petrified that no one will turn-up so he's simply eliminating the disincentives!

And finally, I thought a lot about whether Slim uses Ned's last words appropriately...and, yep!

Slim writes:

No Raffles at an ALP function? Has he quit the party as well?

The land developers must have come up with the big green notes - sometimes referred to as a "Jolly Green Giant"

Who else is known as as "Jolly Green Giant"?  Why Ewan Jones of course.

The land developers win every which way.

Such is life.
Slim

Election 2010 in three easy graphics

Cross-posted in full from Paul Coglan at The Punch 'cause it's so good:

Eat your heart out, Antony Green. These infographic presentations explain the results of the 2010 election. Let’s start with the ratio of eggs to faces.

Next is a Venn diagram roughly illustrating the voting blocs in the new House of Representatives

The final graphic shows how the campaign has highlighted the disparity between seats held and power wielded.

Election 2010 - Murdoch wins & Katter decides the future of a nation

For what it's worth, may assessment of the Election outcome as we understand it this morning:

• Murdoch won the contest by and easy margin with The Australian supported by Sky News a close second



• The Rudd Factor - rubbish - he suffered a 10% swing in his own seat



• The Rudd Leaks Factor - lethal!



• Only Gillard has the personal skills to manage a collaboration with the Independents - the Tories' natural 'born-to-rule" world view will be an anathema to the independents



• Bob Katter will decide who will govern Australia and how!  VERY SCARY!!!

Oh, and about Tony Mooney - well I told you so!  I only hope the ALP learns something about how and who it preselects as it's representative.

... and as for Ewen What's-his-name-see the last paragraph of this piece in today's Bully:

"...Mr Jones said one of his early priorities would be to get Townsville on the weather map and to support Free Sauce Friday"

Not as scary as Bob Katter deciding the fate of the nation, but the punters of Townsville didn't come back with much from their day at the races Saturday

Duty done and the esky is full

The mood was very subdued at the booth on the island that I'm just back from - 3 hours and about 200 punters and no discernible preference one way or another.  Many questioning the Greens decision not to hand out cards or distribute their preferences.

So.... my guess on the outcome (for what it's worth):

• Labor wins nationally by 3-5 seats
• Mooney loses Herbert because he was such a dumb "choice"

We'll see (and drink much beer and eat many chips between now and when we do!)

Vote well

Some crypictic advice from Dee:

"The community of northern Queensland has been served well by its elected Senators who have had offices in Townsville since Senator Jim Keeffe in 1965 and I suppose there are many community members who will remember their favourite Senator with a great deal of fondness.  After all they do represent us in Canberra and live and work in our diverse community.

I notice two of our most recent Senators are finishing their terms of office in the very near future or near future. Only one of these Senators is standing again and only one has had an office in Townsville.

When Senator Macdonald's term of office finishes the Townsville community will no longer have that representation. But I wonder if there is a way out of this mess not of our making that we find ourselves in?

A careful scrutiny of a sample ballot for the Senate candidates in Queensland indicates there is one local only who has been placed by their Party in the No. 1 spot or the No.2 spot and thus becomes the person most likely to be willing and able to maintain a Senate Office in Townsville."
Regards - Dee

As for me - I'm off to vote

Is Tony Mooney already a Serial looser?

Further to last Saturday's post about comrade Mooney's chances in Herbert, Slim writes:

How many times does it take to be a "serial loser"? He is already a three-time loser, that's a "serial" for me! He will make it to four.

The first one was the 1990's attempt at amalgamation which was only pulled because of the strength of the community comments coming from Thuringowa. The reports are still available in the JCU library. That's probably why he is campaigning out there now, although it may have been better to be campaigning in Townsville where a few may still feel sympathy.

The second was the disastrous Mundingburra by-election.
The third was the total destruction at The Amalgamation council election in 2008. Now that was a classic self-destruction!

How many "Tony Mooney" ads has anybody seen on the TV? Did they make any apart from the online meatworks one? Chasing the union vote, most unlikely to get any result.

It's not got anything to do with Rudd. Look in the direction of the competition between various land developers/real estate agents for the likely answers! Remember Rocky Springs - which means two horses from the one stable may be a close guess.

Rudd's political lifespan was a little short after all because he wouldn't play the faction game. Bligh will be next because the AWU and the SDA and the catholic right are ruthless, watch out for Lucas when Bligh gets into this ALP president appointment.

It won't be long now.

Jenny Hill has wanted Mundingburra for a long time now and she knows where all of Ludwig's and De Bruyn's bodies are buried. She knows where Tony's are, obviously.

Sabotage could not be ruled out, you know what these southern europeans are like?

Cheers,
Slim

'Nuff said

Should Mooney be worried?

Although it's tactically nice to be able to claim underdog status, today's front page in The Bulletin won't make Tony Mooney happy.  The Newspoll results showing a 3.4% swing to the LNP is interesting although not particularly enlightening - the error margin is around 2.5% and the have applied a uniform swing from seven Qld marginals to Herbert.

The betting tend is much more interesting showing the LNP consistently leading - While nationally the betting markets are a good indicator, we don't know how many wagers have been made in Herbert (and therefore the strength of the betting sentiment).  I would also be very handy to know whether there have been any large bets placed yet (usually by someone with inside knowledge of party polling).

My guess of the best indicator of the outcome in Herbert? - party spending!  By my reckoning, the LNP are outspending Mooney 2:1 and, let's face it, you don't spend your money promoting a product that you know people aren't going to buy.

Tony is shaping up as a serial loser and the choice of him as candidate as another example of Rudd's poor judgement/leadership

The voters lament

Leunig is truly a national treasure, along with Cooke and Petty and a host of others that make up the fine tradition of political cartooning (all cartooning is political):

You wouldn’t want to be Tony right now .....

Things aren’t looking great for Tony Mooney’s second shot at the big time.

While, judging by Julia’s visits, ALP campaign polling is showing Herbert as still winnable, the Lib’s polling is presumably showing the same thing (given the Monk’s new-found fondness for the town).

Given that the seat is so tight Mooney won’t be happy to learn today that the Greens will not preference him and will not hand out how-to-votes on the day. This decision will invariably lead to the loss of green preferences on the day and is of course contrary to the Greens’ national deal with the ALP – a very open demonstration that, locally, the Greens memories are verrrry long.

But it seems that many in the ALP locally have long memories too!  I hear that a number of Branches around town are having trouble getting a booth roster together for the day - it seems that members of the left in particular just can't bring themselves to help the man they've come to loath.

The fly-in fly-out count will be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks as the leaders time and the campaign dollars gets concentrated on the must win seats (for the ALP, read "must keep seats" of which Herbert of course isn't one) - it will be an early indicator of the likely outcome locally.

Well said

Cross-posted in full from B Sides ...because it is spot-on!

The unreflective mirror

This is a quote from a Barry Cassidy article:
via abc.net.au

This election is not about gender, or even policies; thus far, it's not even about Tony Abbott.
Social researcher, Hugh Mackay, is spot on. It's about Julia Gillard, yes or no.                                                                                       

I'm always stunned when journalists say things like this, as if what an election is "about" somehow happens in a world in which they themselves do not exist. Does it really not occur to them that what an election is "about" cannot be separated from how the election is reported?

I'm really tired of reading articles written by journalists who presume their own non-existence.

It's like when you read them saying that "Labor can't get traction" or "this story about the Coalition was buried". Those two states (traction and buried) merely reflect editorial decisions about what was covered. They are basically saying, we chose not to cover these stories. And yet they write about the lack of traction or the buried story as if it happened in a world where they are mere observers.

Truly, I'm not trying to be rude. I'm just perplexed. Do journalists really think that the lack of focus on Abbott (or policy) and the total focus on Gillard happens independently of their reporting?

The Bulletin's contribution to the election debate

Is this really necessary (or relevant)?

And the inuedno that the boy's hearing was somehow intentionally delayed until after the Election is just the sort of grubbyness we've come to expect from the Murdoch entertainment industry (which so likes to think of itself as a news organisation). 

But then, perhaps the Bully is only now starting in earnest to obey their master's voice about (as he's done so many times in elections in Oz, the US and most recently the UK) who they will support in the Election - .

God is a Ranga

From the Clarence Valley Review classifieds on Wednesday 28 July 2010 via North Coast Voices

More great election commentary

From Your Democracy:

and, from I'm not sure where:

Richard Farmer puts his money on Mooney losing Herbert

I see that Richard Farmer - that warhorse of the left, noted drinker, long-time punter and PoliticalOwl has the Libs at a 69% probability to win Herbert in his Election Form Guide. 

In short The Owl's current advice is:

• Back Labor in these seats: Braddon, Brisbane, Lindsay, Dobell, Deakin, Forde, Bass, Corangamite, Hasluck, McEwen, Leichhardt, Swan, Dawson, La Trobe, Stirling and Sturt.
• Back the Coalition in: Eden Monaro, Bennelong, Longman, Macarthur, Hughes, Macquarie, Dickson, Herbert, Bowman, Canning, Paterson, Wright and Wentworth. 

Great Election commentary #1

Perhaps the first in a series of posts about great Election articles and blog posts that take my fancy.

From David Burchell in The Oz discussing the political class (or is that the Murdoch press?)

"No demagogue, no matter how crass, ever made themselves nearly so ridiculous as do those clever folks who, purporting to lift themselves above the fray, pass arch judgment on the mortals below from their eyrie among the gods"

...more of a great read here

For election junkies

My favourite election sites (so far)

• The Tally Room's backgrounder on Herbert



• Crikey.com's Election Tracker - The Stunts and Bloopers section should be particularly fun to watch as the campaigns develop



• The Drum's Election Sledge YouTube page - work a check every week for new vids



• The ABC's Campaign Pulse page has provides some excellent tracking of the opinion polls and media, twitter, facebook etc



• Anthony Green's House of Reps Calculator.  Have a play - for instance, you'll see that Mooney loses Herbert if the nation swing to the Libs is as little at 0.1%



• Anthony's Greens Electoral Pendulum - notice where Herbert sits!!

Check back regularly - I'll keep adding to the list as I find them (and as you send them in).

The real reason Gillard is in Townsville today.....

...to re-shoot Tony Mooney's election pics - all the ones he had were with his mate and now ex-PM Kevin Rudd who of course got Mooney the gig.  Should he actually get elected to the big house he will find himself doing a very long apprenticeship on the back of the backbench.

While i think about it ... I wonder what it felt like to be Tony Mooney shaking the hand of a woman PM from the Left ?????