The mood was very subdued at the booth on the island that I'm just back from - 3 hours and about 200 punters and no discernible preference one way or another. Many questioning the Greens decision not to hand out cards or distribute their preferences.
So.... my guess on the outcome (for what it's worth):
Labor wins nationally by 3-5 seats
Mooney loses Herbert because he was such a dumb "choice"
We'll see (and drink much beer and eat many chips between now and when we do!)