Of intelligent policy contributions and short memories

I see that Member for Herbert, Ewen Jones, has made it another incisive contribution to the national debate on climate change!

Although Hansard doesn't record his actual words, you would like to think that he was perhaps interjecting with some new data on the rate of melting in the arctic permafrost or a science-based solution to the projected death of the Great Barrier Reef within the next 20 to 40 years.

To be fair, The Big Ewe did make one contribution of some substance during his day in the big house yesterday.  His speech on Warren Entsch's motion on the "Loss of the Malu Sara" was, at times, considered and compassionate.  Though, it is a bit of a pity that his only acknowledgement that the five deaths that is the "Loss of the Malu Sara" happened under the former conservative Government's watch was this little line:

"I do not excuse the Howard government for their role here, but..."

By applying the same logic used by Tony Abbott to vilify Peter Garrett over the deaths of pink-batt insulation installers employed by shoddy contractors, surely the least the Big Ewe could have done was clearly acknowledge that the Howard government was responsible for the deaths of Wilfred Baira, Ted Harry, Valorie Faub, Flora Enosa and her daughter Ethena! Or maybe even apologise for his Party's culpability?

Ewen Jones: "The Townsville Tool" or just an idiot?

Slim writes in follow-up to my earlier post about The Big Ewe's contribution to the national debate and to creating a viable and sustainable policy framework for the our future

A different type of 'substantial contribution' may not make it into local print media.

On the Crikey web site on 23 February in a report by Bernard Keane (behind their subscriber paywall) about Li'l Bil) Shorten's parliamentary performance the last three paragraphs of the report give a rather sad insight into the parliamentary performance of the Member for Herbert, Ewen Jones -

"It’s only early in the parliamentary year but a low point was plumbed right at the end of question time when Kevin Rudd rose to discuss the Middle East and, in particular, Libya, revealing the Libyan ambassador had been called in for a dressing down and that he’d spoken to the Bahraini foreign minister about the killing of protesters there.

This was, plainly, a matter of complete non-interest to a number of Coalition MPs who used the answer to offer doubtless witty advice to Rudd. Peter Dutton and Greg Hunt both heckled and interjected. And sitting up in the back corner, Queensland MP Ewen Jones spent the entire answer jeering and laughing as Rudd discussed Middle East protests, the slaughter of demonstrators and the presence of Australians in Libya.

Classy."

What a representative of the citizens of the greater Townsville region!

Cheers,
Slim

Note to Slim: what exactly is the difference between identifying him as a 'tool' rather than as an (my preferred) idiot?  Both are equally dangerous aren't they?

Mind you, "The Townsville Tool" (or even better the "Tool of Townsville") has a certain ring to it.  But then, "Idiot" is a lot more to the point and "Schoolyard Idiot" would be even more descriptive....

Ewen Jones - talking sense for Townsville

Parliament is sitting again, giving local representative, The Big Ewe, his chance to again contribute to the national debate and make his mark on the country's policy directions and priorities.

Checking OpenAustralia.org for The Ewe's contribution so far this sitting, I was particularly taken by his first entry in Hansard for 23 Feb 2011:

To be fair, The Ewe also made some more substantial contributions yesterday:  There's a nice little suck-up to one of The Ewe's major sponsors, The Townsville Bulletin, and we learn that the Federal Flood Levy will be result in the death of charity in Australia

Perhaps today he'll get to turn his mind to more mundane issues like this prediction out today that the world's reefs (including North Queensland's pre-eminent economic and natural asset, the GBR) will be dead within 40 years - that is, by the time his kids are about as old as he is today.  We'll see.

Ewen Jones speaks - again

Further to yesterday's post, This is what we got for the $460 in wages (times about 5 for on-costs) that The Big Ewe cost the taxpayers of Herbert on Wednesday of this week:

via OpenAustralia.org

Update: The Big Ewe's first Question

Further to Monday's post Ewen Jones' big day out, the following is the Hansard transcript (via openaustralia.org).

Ewen Jones (Herbert, Liberal Party)  My question is to the Prime Minster. I refer the Prime Minister to the decision to locate onshore detention centres at Woodside in the Adelaide Hills and Northam in Western Australia. Will the Prime Minister rule out all other military facilities as onshore detention facilities?

Julia Gillard (Lalor, Australian Labor Party, Prime Minister)  I thank the member for his question. I would refer the member to the statement and information that the Minister for Immigration and Citizenship and I released at the time that we announced these new detention facilities and also the arrangements for children. These are the government’s plans for detention. We wanted to be transparent about a long-term strategy to undercut the fearmongering about other sites that had been going on around Australia. If the member truly wants to inform himself about this, all of the information he requires was publicly available and transparent on the day we made the statement (my emphasis)

Set-up by Crissy Pyne I'd say!!  Or maybe the Big Ewe had been picking-up a groundswell of local fear about Lavarack Barracks being converted into a detention centre???

Ewen Jones' big day out

Listening to Question Time in the House of Reps live just now I heard Ewen Jones ask his first question! 

A big day for the big man, even though no-one other than the wife and kids were listening - although not quite as big as his maiden speech which is gig that ends up in the official history.

So what was the target of the big fella's first real test in the bear-pit?  A question on Health funding (dare I say, the bloody PET scanner)?, or the mining tax?, or the copper-string project perhaps? even the future of the goddamn Fury - no, a question about asylum seekers!!

It will be interesting to see how the Big Ewe (clearly just following orders - a bit like a big ewe), and the Bully report this momentous occasion and explain the choice of subject.

I'll post a Hansard link when it's available.

PS: Gillard batted the question away - telling the Big Ewe to read the public record!!

Who really won in Herbert?

Slim raises an interesting point below about the recent campaign in Herbert. 

Judging by my letterbox and my TV habits, the LNP outspent the ALP 3:1!  So who exactly stumped up for Ewin What's-his-name?

Either the developers as Slim suggests or perhaps Big Clive P (a former property developer, now coal developer - basically the same MO though)?

One thing Slim is dead right about for sure - the property developers about town would have invested enough in each campaign to ensure that there would be a return for them no matter who won!

As for No Raffles at Mooney's wake? - I reckon he's petrified that no one will turn-up so he's simply eliminating the disincentives!

And finally, I thought a lot about whether Slim uses Ned's last words appropriately...and, yep!

Slim writes:

No Raffles at an ALP function? Has he quit the party as well?

The land developers must have come up with the big green notes - sometimes referred to as a "Jolly Green Giant"

Who else is known as as "Jolly Green Giant"?  Why Ewan Jones of course.

The land developers win every which way.

Such is life.
Slim

Is Tony Mooney already a Serial looser?

Further to last Saturday's post about comrade Mooney's chances in Herbert, Slim writes:

How many times does it take to be a "serial loser"? He is already a three-time loser, that's a "serial" for me! He will make it to four.

The first one was the 1990's attempt at amalgamation which was only pulled because of the strength of the community comments coming from Thuringowa. The reports are still available in the JCU library. That's probably why he is campaigning out there now, although it may have been better to be campaigning in Townsville where a few may still feel sympathy.

The second was the disastrous Mundingburra by-election.
The third was the total destruction at The Amalgamation council election in 2008. Now that was a classic self-destruction!

How many "Tony Mooney" ads has anybody seen on the TV? Did they make any apart from the online meatworks one? Chasing the union vote, most unlikely to get any result.

It's not got anything to do with Rudd. Look in the direction of the competition between various land developers/real estate agents for the likely answers! Remember Rocky Springs - which means two horses from the one stable may be a close guess.

Rudd's political lifespan was a little short after all because he wouldn't play the faction game. Bligh will be next because the AWU and the SDA and the catholic right are ruthless, watch out for Lucas when Bligh gets into this ALP president appointment.

It won't be long now.

Jenny Hill has wanted Mundingburra for a long time now and she knows where all of Ludwig's and De Bruyn's bodies are buried. She knows where Tony's are, obviously.

Sabotage could not be ruled out, you know what these southern europeans are like?

Cheers,
Slim

Should Mooney be worried?

Although it's tactically nice to be able to claim underdog status, today's front page in The Bulletin won't make Tony Mooney happy.  The Newspoll results showing a 3.4% swing to the LNP is interesting although not particularly enlightening - the error margin is around 2.5% and the have applied a uniform swing from seven Qld marginals to Herbert.

The betting tend is much more interesting showing the LNP consistently leading - While nationally the betting markets are a good indicator, we don't know how many wagers have been made in Herbert (and therefore the strength of the betting sentiment).  I would also be very handy to know whether there have been any large bets placed yet (usually by someone with inside knowledge of party polling).

My guess of the best indicator of the outcome in Herbert? - party spending!  By my reckoning, the LNP are outspending Mooney 2:1 and, let's face it, you don't spend your money promoting a product that you know people aren't going to buy.

Tony is shaping up as a serial loser and the choice of him as candidate as another example of Rudd's poor judgement/leadership

You wouldn’t want to be Tony right now .....

Things aren’t looking great for Tony Mooney’s second shot at the big time.

While, judging by Julia’s visits, ALP campaign polling is showing Herbert as still winnable, the Lib’s polling is presumably showing the same thing (given the Monk’s new-found fondness for the town).

Given that the seat is so tight Mooney won’t be happy to learn today that the Greens will not preference him and will not hand out how-to-votes on the day. This decision will invariably lead to the loss of green preferences on the day and is of course contrary to the Greens’ national deal with the ALP – a very open demonstration that, locally, the Greens memories are verrrry long.

But it seems that many in the ALP locally have long memories too!  I hear that a number of Branches around town are having trouble getting a booth roster together for the day - it seems that members of the left in particular just can't bring themselves to help the man they've come to loath.

The fly-in fly-out count will be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks as the leaders time and the campaign dollars gets concentrated on the must win seats (for the ALP, read "must keep seats" of which Herbert of course isn't one) - it will be an early indicator of the likely outcome locally.

Mooney must be sweating

Tony Mooney must be wondering whether he's gonna repeat in Herbert what he did in Mundingburra:

• He's lost his apparent key supporter in Kevin Rudd who, if The Bulletin is to be believed, intervened personally to ensure his preselection



• Within days of her becoming PM, Gillard visited the next-door seat of Dawson  to announce her Super Profits Tax deal and give Mike Brunker plenty of head space in the evening news.



• The Libs or the LNP or whatever they are called are already out-spending the ALP in Herbert by 10:1



• The ALP's local troops in Herbert are still pissed that they were denied the right to select their own candidate

And today comes the news (via pollytics.com) that Betfair gives Herbert to whoever that guy is who's running against Mooney:

A bit of a worry for the boy - especially given that theoretically he starts with a 0.4% margin!

Peter Lindsay's PET program, the longest gestation in history

New Contributor Dee posts:

The Liberals or the LNP have had Peter Lindsay MHR as Canberra's representative in Herbert since 1996; thirteen years consecutively. Now in 2010 as the time for the next federal election comes closer, here is Tony Abbott "promising" that the LNP will deliver a PET scanner "immediately".

The LNP now say "four years is too long to wait" and compare themselves favourably with the ALP's claim that they will deliver a PET scanner in 2014.

This glaring inconsistency will not be missed by any elector in Herbert, so one of the rhetorical questions has to be "how many people do the LNP think they are going to deceive?"

The other hilarious part in all of this is the claim from Tony Mooney's pamphlet that the "Life Saving PET Scanner Delivered for North QLD" - past tense for something "promised" to happen in 2014. Same question about deception applies.

I can hardly wait for the new LNP candidate to promise that the LNP will "flood proof the Bruce Highway" which was always the favourite of Peter Lindsay at every federal election. Never delivered on that one either.

Thanks again Dee and welcome on board.
I too have been noticing the seemingly daily full-page ads in The Bulletin featuring The Monk and his Pet. At $3,500 a pop minimum this strikes me as an 'interesting' tactic this far out and perhaps and indication of how cashed-up the Libs are going into the election - no doubt thanks to the Miners.

Or maybe they're just stupid - spend $3.5 grand a day and not once mention the local candidate's name (what-ever it is) is just plain strange!

What do Mooney, V8s and toilet paper have in common?: A letter from Slim

Hi Islander

The recent letter and campaign update from the Mooney Kamp tells us a number of important facts and also allows some speculation, because that is what we like to do!

• "the fight ....... will be hard fought" - outstanding prose from one of JCU's finest?



• "cuts to services and a return to the worst aspects ........ including work choices" - is this what Mooney is promising?






• "broad based Campaign Committee" - does this mean they'll sit around on their big fat arses, like last time, when they could not "out" Tyrell's team as Liberals


• "I will be campaigning on a range on a range of local issues including health reform" - he'll be at the V8 races dispensing toilet paper and making all sorts of spurious claims to all the drunks about who brought the V8 races to town and just how soon they are going to open the case that contains the PET scanner



• Vi Cox has opened the Currajong ALP Branch purse strings at last for her beloved Tony - Colbran's taxpayer-funded business expenses no longer required; get well soon



• Barry Mitchell as campaign director - have the loving couple of Mitchell and Jack Wilson kissed, cuddled and made up? Or has Jack been asked that famous old ALP saying - do you like sex and travel?

The next campaign meeting will be 31 May at the office. Will there be space on the campaign team for a few "National Party" members? How about some "Liberal Party Members"? How about some "Independent Party" members?
You going to the meeting?

Cheers - Slim

Comradeship, unity, equality, solidarity, justice – the ALP in Herbert

Occasional guest blogger Slim Cayenne sent this copy of the latest letter doing the rounds to ALP members in response the shoehorning of Tony Mooney into the party's candidature for the race for Herbert (click on the pick for better view).

Slim added the following comment:

"Governments lose elections by not listening to those who will make the decisions about who they will vote for.  The LNP will hold onto Herbert."

I agree on both counts Slim.

More on the ALP battle for Herbert

The Poll Bludger reports:

Labor’s national executive has installed three marginal seat candidates in what The Australian reported as a deal granting Herbert to the AWU sub-faction of the Right, Dawson to its rival Labor Unity sub-faction and Bowman to the Left. The respective candidates are former Townsville mayor Tony Mooney, who won the nod despite local support for councillor Jenny Hill; Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker, who was picked over Julieanne Gilbert of the Queensland Teachers Union and finance industry worker Louise Mahony; and “local businesswoman and mother of two” Jenny Peters. The candidate for Bowman in 2007, Jason Young, reportedly lost his Left faction’s backing late last year due to his campaigning against the Bligh government’s asset sales in his capacity as an Electrical Trades Union organiser. Sean Parnell of The Australian reports Brunker faces the difficulty of a “lengthy Crime and Misconduct Commission investigation over his links with property developers”

I still can't help but wonder whether Mooney has brought a pup

Herbert – could this be the ultimate game plan?

Over the weekend I started wondering again about the ALP’s federal intervention into the preselection for Herbert .

Could it be that this pick has been made in the expectation that the ALP will lose the seat – that the preselection is a give-aways to appease the factions or to settle old debts in the expectation that it in fact won’t be won?

Unless Abbott totally implodes (a distinct possibility but maybe not a probability), history tells the campaign strategists that, in all likelihood, Labor will lose rather than gain seats at the next federal election.

Understandably, parties concentrate their campaign resources in marginal seats and, if the expectation is that seats will be lost, they are concentrated in those seats you marginally hold and not those marginally held by your opposition.

For the record, Anthony Green estimates that the currently Liberal (or is that LNP) held seat of Herbert is marginally Labor (by 0.4%) following the last redistribution.  Green also estimates that on the new boundaries, the ALP has to protect 14 seats which they currently hold by a margin of 3% or less.

With the demographics of Herbert changing since the 2007 election and arguably trending to the right over the last decade or more (witness for example the increase in defence force families in the electorate), the seat could be difficult for Labor to win if, as realistically expected, the national swing against them is on come election time.

If I’m right, the ALP’s campaign resources won’t be wasted on seats such as Herbert (they will seek to, for example, protect Maxine McKew in Howard's old seat of Bennelong before taking a punt on Herbert), Mooney will lose, and his last shot in the locker will have been spent (and all party debts to him will have been paid).

Worth thinking about? What do you reckon?

For the sake of completeness

Further to my post here about moves by some disgruntled ALP members to set up a NQ Labor Party to run (against Mooney) in the race for Herbert and for the sake of completeness, click the graphic below to read Mooney’s letter to members

Breaking News: Mooney wins preselection

News just through that, as expected, Tony Mooney has "won" ALP preselection for the race for Herbert.  Well actually, he has been handed the preselection by the party's National Executive.

Don't bother checking The Bulletin's web site for the news - well not for a few hours anyway.

While everyone is a bit focused on the off-shore cyclone right now - I forecast, as a result of the ALP's decision, an extended period of mud flying for the next few months (see, for example, my earlier post)

I'm currently setting-up a book on Mooney losing the seat as a result.  Any takers?

Who exactly is backing Mooney for Herbert?

I hear that it’s not so much the PM who is backing Mooney for ALP preselection  for the race in Herbert (as The Bulletin and others would have us believe) but one Leigh Birmingham who has been touting for Mooney’s consulting business in recent times - presumably in return for his doing quite well out of TCC when Mooney was Mayor.

With the Federal ALP executive apparently taking the risky road and likely to back Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker for Dawson preselection despite his being under investigation by the Crime and Misconduct Commission, you’d think that they’d look a bit more closely at the links between Birmingham and Mooney as investigated in a previous Criminal Justice Commission probe.

Expect more federal intervention in Herbert

Expect an article from Rosanne Barrett in The Australian in the comming days/weeks on the federal ALP's intervention to assure the preselection of Tony Mooney in Herbert. 

It seems that quite a few local ALP members are only too happy to voice their outrage (and opinions on Mooney's chances of getting local members to "man" the booths on election day and of actually winning the seat).

You heard it here first