Although it's tactically nice to be able to claim underdog status, today's front page in The Bulletin won't make Tony Mooney happy. The Newspoll results showing a 3.4% swing to the LNP is interesting although not particularly enlightening - the error margin is around 2.5% and the have applied a uniform swing from seven Qld marginals to Herbert.
The betting tend is much more interesting showing the LNP consistently leading - While nationally the betting markets are a good indicator, we don't know how many wagers have been made in Herbert (and therefore the strength of the betting sentiment). I would also be very handy to know whether there have been any large bets placed yet (usually by someone with inside knowledge of party polling).
My guess of the best indicator of the outcome in Herbert? - party spending! By my reckoning, the LNP are outspending Mooney 2:1 and, let's face it, you don't spend your money promoting a product that you know people aren't going to buy.
Tony is shaping up as a serial loser and the choice of him as candidate as another example of Rudd's poor judgement/leadership