Who really won in Herbert?

Slim raises an interesting point below about the recent campaign in Herbert. 

Judging by my letterbox and my TV habits, the LNP outspent the ALP 3:1!  So who exactly stumped up for Ewin What's-his-name?

Either the developers as Slim suggests or perhaps Big Clive P (a former property developer, now coal developer - basically the same MO though)?

One thing Slim is dead right about for sure - the property developers about town would have invested enough in each campaign to ensure that there would be a return for them no matter who won!

As for No Raffles at Mooney's wake? - I reckon he's petrified that no one will turn-up so he's simply eliminating the disincentives!

And finally, I thought a lot about whether Slim uses Ned's last words appropriately...and, yep!

Slim writes:

No Raffles at an ALP function? Has he quit the party as well?

The land developers must have come up with the big green notes - sometimes referred to as a "Jolly Green Giant"

Who else is known as as "Jolly Green Giant"?  Why Ewan Jones of course.

The land developers win every which way.

Such is life.
Slim

Election 2010 in three easy graphics

Cross-posted in full from Paul Coglan at The Punch 'cause it's so good:

Eat your heart out, Antony Green. These infographic presentations explain the results of the 2010 election. Let’s start with the ratio of eggs to faces.

Next is a Venn diagram roughly illustrating the voting blocs in the new House of Representatives

The final graphic shows how the campaign has highlighted the disparity between seats held and power wielded.

Election 2010 - Murdoch wins & Katter decides the future of a nation

For what it's worth, may assessment of the Election outcome as we understand it this morning:

• Murdoch won the contest by and easy margin with The Australian supported by Sky News a close second



• The Rudd Factor - rubbish - he suffered a 10% swing in his own seat



• The Rudd Leaks Factor - lethal!



• Only Gillard has the personal skills to manage a collaboration with the Independents - the Tories' natural 'born-to-rule" world view will be an anathema to the independents



• Bob Katter will decide who will govern Australia and how!  VERY SCARY!!!

Oh, and about Tony Mooney - well I told you so!  I only hope the ALP learns something about how and who it preselects as it's representative.

... and as for Ewen What's-his-name-see the last paragraph of this piece in today's Bully:

"...Mr Jones said one of his early priorities would be to get Townsville on the weather map and to support Free Sauce Friday"

Not as scary as Bob Katter deciding the fate of the nation, but the punters of Townsville didn't come back with much from their day at the races Saturday

Duty done and the esky is full

The mood was very subdued at the booth on the island that I'm just back from - 3 hours and about 200 punters and no discernible preference one way or another.  Many questioning the Greens decision not to hand out cards or distribute their preferences.

So.... my guess on the outcome (for what it's worth):

• Labor wins nationally by 3-5 seats
• Mooney loses Herbert because he was such a dumb "choice"

We'll see (and drink much beer and eat many chips between now and when we do!)

Vote well

Some crypictic advice from Dee:

"The community of northern Queensland has been served well by its elected Senators who have had offices in Townsville since Senator Jim Keeffe in 1965 and I suppose there are many community members who will remember their favourite Senator with a great deal of fondness.  After all they do represent us in Canberra and live and work in our diverse community.

I notice two of our most recent Senators are finishing their terms of office in the very near future or near future. Only one of these Senators is standing again and only one has had an office in Townsville.

When Senator Macdonald's term of office finishes the Townsville community will no longer have that representation. But I wonder if there is a way out of this mess not of our making that we find ourselves in?

A careful scrutiny of a sample ballot for the Senate candidates in Queensland indicates there is one local only who has been placed by their Party in the No. 1 spot or the No.2 spot and thus becomes the person most likely to be willing and able to maintain a Senate Office in Townsville."
Regards - Dee

As for me - I'm off to vote

Peter Lindsay's final rort?

Sim writes:
Well we have all been waiting such a very long time for the swan song of the Hon. Peter Lindsay.

Here it is folks.

One more run on the public purse, but for whose benefit?

This document is clearly set out to deceive the voting public during an election campaign.

The document does not have an "authorised by" nor a "printed by" acknowledgement.

The document was personally addressed using the electronic electoral roll facilities and other taxpayer-funded office equipment available to sitting members.

The document contains the idea that the Coalition candidate has the authority to decide that for the Seat of Dawson there will be two electorate offices.

Honorable?

Hope he doesn't let the door belt him on the arse on the way out.

Cheers,
Slim

The furture of the Australian health system?

One American's $76,000 bill for an emergency appendectomy.  From the market controlled health system that Tony Abbott use as the model for Australia

Is Tony Mooney already a Serial looser?

Further to last Saturday's post about comrade Mooney's chances in Herbert, Slim writes:

How many times does it take to be a "serial loser"? He is already a three-time loser, that's a "serial" for me! He will make it to four.

The first one was the 1990's attempt at amalgamation which was only pulled because of the strength of the community comments coming from Thuringowa. The reports are still available in the JCU library. That's probably why he is campaigning out there now, although it may have been better to be campaigning in Townsville where a few may still feel sympathy.

The second was the disastrous Mundingburra by-election.
The third was the total destruction at The Amalgamation council election in 2008. Now that was a classic self-destruction!

How many "Tony Mooney" ads has anybody seen on the TV? Did they make any apart from the online meatworks one? Chasing the union vote, most unlikely to get any result.

It's not got anything to do with Rudd. Look in the direction of the competition between various land developers/real estate agents for the likely answers! Remember Rocky Springs - which means two horses from the one stable may be a close guess.

Rudd's political lifespan was a little short after all because he wouldn't play the faction game. Bligh will be next because the AWU and the SDA and the catholic right are ruthless, watch out for Lucas when Bligh gets into this ALP president appointment.

It won't be long now.

Jenny Hill has wanted Mundingburra for a long time now and she knows where all of Ludwig's and De Bruyn's bodies are buried. She knows where Tony's are, obviously.

Sabotage could not be ruled out, you know what these southern europeans are like?

Cheers,
Slim

'Nuff said

Should Mooney be worried?

Although it's tactically nice to be able to claim underdog status, today's front page in The Bulletin won't make Tony Mooney happy.  The Newspoll results showing a 3.4% swing to the LNP is interesting although not particularly enlightening - the error margin is around 2.5% and the have applied a uniform swing from seven Qld marginals to Herbert.

The betting tend is much more interesting showing the LNP consistently leading - While nationally the betting markets are a good indicator, we don't know how many wagers have been made in Herbert (and therefore the strength of the betting sentiment).  I would also be very handy to know whether there have been any large bets placed yet (usually by someone with inside knowledge of party polling).

My guess of the best indicator of the outcome in Herbert? - party spending!  By my reckoning, the LNP are outspending Mooney 2:1 and, let's face it, you don't spend your money promoting a product that you know people aren't going to buy.

Tony is shaping up as a serial loser and the choice of him as candidate as another example of Rudd's poor judgement/leadership