Richard Farmer puts his money on Mooney losing Herbert

I see that Richard Farmer - that warhorse of the left, noted drinker, long-time punter and PoliticalOwl has the Libs at a 69% probability to win Herbert in his Election Form Guide. 

In short The Owl's current advice is:

• Back Labor in these seats: Braddon, Brisbane, Lindsay, Dobell, Deakin, Forde, Bass, Corangamite, Hasluck, McEwen, Leichhardt, Swan, Dawson, La Trobe, Stirling and Sturt.
• Back the Coalition in: Eden Monaro, Bennelong, Longman, Macarthur, Hughes, Macquarie, Dickson, Herbert, Bowman, Canning, Paterson, Wright and Wentworth.